Capital Allocation Inside Companies

I loved this Tweetstorm from The Secret CFO on capital allocation.

You should read it in full, but the key point for me is that if a company has capital to invest, the default position should always be to return it to shareholders via a stock buyback or a dividend.

There are three things a company can do with capital:

1/ strengthen their balance sheet (hold cash or pay down debt)
2/ invest in growth
3/ return capital to shareholders.

The default position should be #3.

There’s an old saying that “profitable companies have run out of ideas.” Meaning that if you make a profit it means you’re not investing in new products and services that will drive future growth. This is a fun saying, but it sort of implies there’s something wrong with being out of ideas or taking a profit. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with this. Companies are designed to create shareholder value. Generating profits and giving the cash back to investors so that they can go out and spend it or invest it as they please is the definition of creating shareholder value. Apple, the most profitable company in the country, had a net income of just under $100 billion last year and paid out a large part of it to shareholders in the form of dividends. They’ve created a high hurdle for new investments in growth. If they don’t expect a new initiative to create a huge amount of value, they default to returning that capital to shareholders.

Obviously, in the early stages of a company, the priority has to be building something such that generating profits is even possible. In these cases, all available capital goes towards growth. But later-stage companies that are generating a material amount of cash through their core business should default to giving capital back to shareholders. Using this as the default position creates a very healthy discipline, ensuring that new investments in growth are fully thought through and approved with the proper amount of analysis, rigor, and skepticism.

Tech Company Layoffs

There’s been quite a bit of news over the last several weeks of tech companies freezing hiring and laying off employees. Perhaps most notably, Meta (formerly Facebook) recently laid off 11,000 employees or 13% of its workforce. I thought I'd write a post about what tech companies are thinking about and the factors that are contributing to these unfortunate announcements. First, some history:

Until about a year ago, the stock market had been on a bull run for about 13 years. There are several reasons for this, but the primary reason was that, during this time, we had zero or near-zero interest rates. When interest rates are near zero, companies can borrow money almost for free, allowing them to invest heavily and grow, grow, grow. In addition, when interest rates are so low, money flows out of fixed-income investments and into riskier equity investments (the stock market). More money in equities means higher stock prices for public companies. Public company stock prices are a proxy for private company valuations, so private companies have experienced the same dynamics. This enabled companies to raise enormous amounts of money with little dilution for founders and shareholders. Due to classic supply and demand forces, more money in equities means that the same company with the same financial profile could be valued at 2 or 5, or 10 times what it would be worth in a less bullish market.

It was a great ride until COVID hit, and the economy stalled because people couldn't leave their homes and go to work and buy the goods and services they had been buying in the past. To get us through the crisis, the federal government rightly provided a massive economic stimulus to businesses and consumers by pushing more than $6 trillion into the economy. Again, more money in the system means higher prices for everything (including stocks). Due to COVID, we also saw major global supply chain issues and price spikes across nearly every category (again, the effects of supply and demand; reduced supply of products drives higher prices). Thankfully, the economy quickly recovered and Americans had surpluses of cash that they were anxious to go out and spend. And they did. As a result, we're now seeing historical levels of inflation. The inflation rate for the period ending in September was 8.2%; the average is closer to 3%.

This level of inflation is very dangerous. If prices increase faster than wages, it can literally topple the economy. And there have been lots of examples of this happening in the past. Luckily, the federal government can contract the money supply to slow inflation (less money in the system leads to lower prices). This has the effect of raising interest rates. And that's exactly what has happened; the federal funds rate sits at around 4%, the highest since 2008.

As a result, money has poured out of equities, particularly tech equities. The broader S&P 500 index is down about 15%, and the tech-focused NASDAQ is down about 30%. Tech companies get hit much harder in these cycles because they're investing in future growth and often carry a lot of debt. Because the profits from these investments won't be realized until further out in the future, increased interest rates discount the values of these future cash flows by an excessive amount (more on this soon).

An additional challenge is that as the Federal Reserve contracts the money supply and interest rates rise, it's not very predictable how quickly that will temper price inflation, so there's no way to know how long this drop in the markets and company valuations will persist. And there are reasons to believe it could get worse before it gets better. 

For companies trying to navigate all of these changing conditions, their worlds have become much more difficult. Valuations are way down. As recently as 10 days ago, Facebook’s stock price hit $88, down from a peak of $378. Stock options granted to Facebook employees over the last 6 or 7 years are likely worthless.

Further, the cost of capital (both debt and equity) for companies has significantly increased. This hits technology companies, which, as I mentioned above, typically have higher levels of debt because they're investing in new growth, particularly hard. The cost of running these businesses becomes much more expensive because the cost of debt increases (increased interest expense). In addition, some of these debt covenants have requirements around growth and profitability that companies need to meet. 

Moreover, and this is probably the most important part of what's going on that should be well understood, is that because tech companies are investing heavily in new growth, the profits from those investments won't be realized for several periods. And higher interest rates hit growth-oriented companies very hard because of the discount rate of future cash flows (more on that here). This is a very important economic concept that many in the tech ecosystem don't understand well enough. Said simply, a company is valued on its ability to generate future cash flows. And increased interest rates lead to a discount in the current value of these future cash flows far more than for companies that are profitable now. When interest rates are zero, there's no discount applied to future cash flows, so the market seeks high-growth companies that are making big, bold bets. When interest rates rise, investors look for companies that have profits now. Again, this is simply because of the discount applied to future cash flows.

Finally, and more broadly, businesses are seeing what's happening and are concerned that jobs will be lost, spending will slow, demand for their products will decrease, and a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) might be on the horizon and bookings and revenue may decrease.

That's the situation tech companies find themselves in today. So how are they responding?

Well, it's important to remember that a company's primary purpose is to maximize shareholder value (for external investors and employees holding stock options). Management has a legal duty to its shareholders to operate in a way that maximizes the value of the company, regardless of the changing markets and the lack of predictability around when things will get better or worse. So in a market where near-term profits and cash flows are very highly valued, companies must pare back longer-term growth investments and find ways to cut costs to realize profits more quickly. And, because, typically, the vast majority of expenses of a tech company come from human capital (employees), the only material way to do this is to slow hiring or decrease headcount.

And this is exactly why we're seeing all of the news reports of tech companies freezing hiring and laying off employees.

Of course, some will criticize these companies for hiring too fast and overextending themselves, and voluntarily getting themselves into this situation by investing too heavily too fast. In many cases, this criticism is fair. But it's worth noting that, while cost reduction has rapidly become very important, in a bull market, growth is inversely and equally important. Facebook, as an example, is taking a lot of heat for overhiring engineers, but should they? I’m no expert on Facebook, but it’s an interesting thought exercise to think through for any company. Again, the job of a company is to maximize shareholder value. And when capital is cheap or free, the companies that invest heavily in growth will receive the highest valuations (again, refer back to the discount rate applied to future cash flows). At scale, had Facebook and the other tech giants chose not to make those hires, those individuals would've been unemployed during that period or would've received lower wages from other companies during that period, possibly displacing less talented engineers. If a company has viable ideas and areas to grow, and capital to invest in that growth is freely available, it must pursue that growth. It must maximize shareholder value. Companies with high growth potential have to play the game on the field. They have to pursue growth if they believe it's there. This is an unavoidable cycle that innovative companies are subject to. And individuals that work in the tech ecosystem will inevitably be the beneficiaries – and the victims – of these realities. Other industries experience far less dramatic highs and lows.

Of course, it should be noted that these highs and lows seriously impact people's lives. And I've been glad to see many companies (though not all) executing these cost reductions with humility, empathy, and generous severance packages.

With all of this said, inevitably, at some point, inflation will slow, interest rates will decrease, companies will invest in growth, companies will start hiring again, we'll be back in a bull market, and everything will seem great. In the meantime, it's important that all stakeholders that have chosen to work in and around tech understand and plan accordingly around the macroeconomic cycles that have a disproportionate effect on this industry.

Investor Context & Incentives

The best managers prioritize giving their teams as much context as possible. When employees lack context, it leads to an enormous amount of unnecessary friction and uncertainty. It’s crucial for managers to give context around the work they’re asking employees to do, the decisions they’re making, and the priorities they’re driving. At the same time, employees should play a role here as well. If they’re not getting the context they need from their manager, they should ask. Employees should empathize and push hard to get in the head of their manager and understand their manager’s incentives and the context they’re operating in. It’s a partnership.

While this is fairly well understood, often, I find that managers don’t understand the context and incentives of their boss’s boss or even their boss’s boss’s boss (the company’s investors). I’ve found that deeply understanding how investors think is an essential part of being an effective operator. It’s even helpful to understand the content and incentives of a company’s investors’ bosses (the investors’ limited partners).

Here are four books that have helped me get inside the heads of the individuals that invest in the companies I’ve worked with, both venture-backed and private equity-backed. Understanding the history of these industries, their investment strategies, and how investors are measured and managed has made me a much more effective operator and leader.

Venture Capital

The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future by Sebastian Mallaby

Angel Investing: The Gust Guide to Making Money and Having Fun Investing in Startups by David Rose

Private Equity

The Private Equity Playbook: Management’s Guide to Working with Private Equity by Adam Coffey

Two and Twenty: How the Masters of Private Equity Always Win by Sachin Khajuria

Consensus vs. Non-consensus

I recently heard a technology investor say that if most of his friends don’t laugh at him for investing in a company, then he knows it’s not a good investment. While this is a little strong, there’s definitely some truth to the statement, particularly in venture capital, where your big winners drive most of the returns. If you’re investing in a company that everyone believes will be successful, then you’re investing with the crowd, and your returns are limited. To maximize returns, you have to bet against the consensus and be right when everyone else is wrong.

Consensus and wrong — you lose your money
Non-consensus and wrong — you lose your money
Consensus and right — small ROI
Non-consensus and right — big ROI

Refusing To Fail

I heard Phil Mickelson, the legendary golfer, tell a great story the other day.

He was asked what makes the best golfers the best golfers in the world. He told a story about how a long time ago, he really struggled with short putts. One day his coach recommended that he try to make 100 three-foot putts in a row. If he missed one, he'd have to start all over again. And he should keep practicing this until he can reliably make 100 in a row. He claims that one time he made it all the way to 99, missed the 100th, and started over. 

Years later, he was mentoring an up-and-coming amateur golfer who was struggling with short putts, and he gave that golfer the same advice. Several months later, he checked in on how the golfer was doing with his putting, and the golfer said, "yea, that was really hard, I got to where I could make about 50 in a row, and I gave up.”

This golfer never made it in the PGA.

This is a great analogy when thinking about startup investing. Often, in the early days, you're really investing less in the idea or the product or the market; you're really investing in the founder themselves and their willingness to persevere and navigate through the idea maze and do what, in some cases, seems impossible. Some people work on some projects where for whatever reason, they will absolutely refuse to fail. Elon Musk is a great example. Both SpaceX and Tesla should've failed multiple times. But he persevered and forced it to happen through sheer will. Of course, he's incredibly smart and talented, but that wouldn't have been nearly enough. This quality doesn't exist in everyone, and even for those that do, it doesn't exist for every project at every time in their lives, given changing life circumstances and priorities.

This golf analogy is a good one to consider when you're investing at an early stage where you don't have much to go on other than the talents, skills, and dedication of the founder and founding team.